The Burundian Factor: Africa File Special Edition

Ford, Yale

September 1, 2026

20260901

The Burundian Factor: Africa File Special Edition

TheBurundianFactorAfricaFileSpecialEditionCTP01092026.pdf

22865382 bytes

35

Critical Threats Project

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-burundian-factor-africa-file-special-edition?utm_campaign=22139245-FDP_NLR%20CTP%20Africa%20File&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_HuMfTDlAupVY7h7HCtHFIwIKpD0eQ8H7bY0EOqD6uzCW2uyQmTf0FIRO_iWkspUGMqpr3YhrUb-r5rlO95WXeo8D49w&_hsmi=436540424&utm_content=436540424&utm_source=hs_email

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EN

This Critical Threats Project study examines Burundi's growing role in the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and its regional rivalry with Rwanda. It describes the significant expansion of Burundian military involvement alongside the Congolese army against the Rwanda-backed M23 and argues that Burundi has become a key military partner of Kinshasa, particularly in South Kivu. The study places this involvement in the context of a long-standing confrontation between Burundi and Rwanda, fueled by alleged support for opposing armed groups, notably RED-Tabara on the Rwandan side and the FDLR on the Burundian side. It also highlights Burundi's strategic and economic interests in South Kivu, including around Uvira and cross-border trade and gold networks. Particular attention is paid to the ethnic dimension of the conflict. CTP argues that some Burundian elites exploit the Rwandan threat and anti-Tutsi narratives for domestic political purposes. The study documents discrimination against Tutsi in Burundi and the stigmatization of the Banyamulenge, particularly around Minembwe, where military operations by Congolese and Burundian forces and their allies have severely affected civilians. It warns that these dynamics could deepen ethnic polarization in both Burundi and the DRC. Finally, the study examines the domestic costs of the war for Burundi (including military losses, economic difficulties, and tensions within the CNDD-FDD) as well as the rivalry between President Évariste Ndayishimiye and Révérien Ndikuriyo. CTP argues that Burundi's exclusion from the main peace frameworks between the DRC and Rwanda is a significant weakness in international efforts to achieve a sustainable resolution of the conflict.

https://francegenocidetutsi.fr/fgtshow.php?num=36538